Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik: UFC Fight Night 207 Preview & Betting Guide

The main event features a heavyweight clash as Alexander Volkov faces Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Volkov is coming off a disappointing first-round loss to Tom Aspinall in March, while Rozenstruik dropped a three-round decision to Curtis Blaydes in September of last year.

Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Fight Details

HW – #7 Alexander Volkov (34-10-0) vs. HW – #8 Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-3-0)

Date: Saturday, June 4, 2022 | Time: 5:00 p.m. ET

Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | Broadcast Coverage: ESPN2

Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Odds

Odds to Win: Volkov -150 | Rozenstruik +125

How Will Fight End: KO/TKO/DQ -135 | Submission +800 | Decision +120

Will the fight go the distance? Yes +120 | No -165

Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Analysis

Alexander Volkov is a former M-1 Global Heavyweight Champion and former Bellator Heavyweight Champion. He’s been in the cage with some of the top heavyweight names throughout his 13-year career. In the UFC, Volkov has had varying results, going 8-4. He has UFC wins over Timothy Johnson, Roy Nelson, Stefan Struve, Fabricio Werdum, Greg Hardy, Walt Harris, Alistair Overeem, and Marcin Tybura. However, Volkov has lost two of his past three. His four UFC losses were at the hands of Derrick Lewis, Curtis Blaydes, Ciryl Gane, and Aspinall.

Meanwhile, Jairzinho Rozenstruik has gone 6-3 in the UFC, with all three losses in his past five fights. Like Volkov, Rozenstruik has lost to Gane and Blaydes, the latter being his most recent loss. His third defeat was a knockout loss to UFC Heavyweight Champion Francis Ngannou.

Volkov will have a significant size advantage. At 6’7, he’ll have at least five inches of height on Rozenstruik. Volkov will also enjoy a two-inch reach advantage and a 6.5-inch leg-reach advantage. Rozenstruik possesses more power, boasting a 92 percent knockout win rate, while Volkov wins by KO 65 percent of the time. Rozenstruik also averages 1.05 knockdowns per 15 minutes, while Volkov averages 0.22.

The Russian has a lot more experience, spending an average of 14 minutes and 26 seconds in the Octagon, while the Surinamer clocks in at nine-and-a-half minutes. Volkov has his fair share of KO/TKO finishes but chooses to pick his shots and finish opponents with volume. Rozenstruik can finish opponents with one punch but has been gun shy in the past.

Volkov will look to use his size, stay on the outside, and keep up a large output. He averages 4.83 significant strikes per minute, almost twice Rozenstruik’s 2.8. Both fighters absorb just over three significant strikes per minute. Their takedown defense is above 75 percent, but neither is known for attempting takedowns. Additionally, neither fighter will be a submission threat. 

Rozenstruik has the tools to win this fight, but he’ll need to be aggressive. Unfortunately for him, Volkov should be able to stay on the outside and pick his moments to attack. If this fight were taking place in the larger size 30-foot Octagon, there would be value in a decision. However, UFC Apex uses a smaller 25-foot cage, which results in more finishes. Two heavyweights coupled with a smaller Octagon make this fight unlikely to go the distance.

Volkov should be the favorite, but the smaller fight area makes Rozenstruik a live dog.

Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Prediction

The Picks: Rozenstruik by KO/TKO or DQ (+200), Rozenstruik by KO/TKO or DQ in Round 1 (+750)