Betting Guide for UFC 258
We were supposed to see this main event back in December, and now we will have to wait no longer. The welterweight champion, Kamaru Usman, puts his belt on the line against his former teammate and sparring partner, Gilbert Burns. Neither of these guys have lost a UFC fight at 170 pounds and there is little question that they are the two best fighters in the division currently.
In the co-main event, the UFC is giving Maycee Barber a big showcase spot in her first fight since suffering her lone UFC loss. We also get another look at former title contender Kelvin Gastelum, and the UFC’s all-time fight leader, Jim Miller.
FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to make.
Kamaru Usman (-290) vs. Gilbert Burns (+235)
Kamaru Usman by Points (+130)
These two are very familiar with each other after training together for many years at H Kickboxing and Sanford MMA. Usman chose to move onto Team Elevation in Colorado for new training, and Burns will be without his head coach, Henri Hooft, who has elected to sit this one out. With these two being so familiar, it would be strange to see Usman take the fight if he didn’t know he could win, but -290 is heavy odds.
Where we can find value is in this fight going the distance. Nine of Usman’s past 11 fights have gone to a decision, and one of those other two lasted into the fifth round. Burns has also fought to a decision in two of his past three fights, with both fighters in this matchup sharing a decision victory over former champion Tyron Woodley. Instead of taking Usman straight up, enjoy the value of him winning by decision at +130.
Alexa Grasso (-130) vs. Maycee Barber (+108)
Maycee Barber (+108)
Maycee Barber has been a significant favorite in each of her four UFC fights and was billed as potentially becoming the youngest champion in the organization’s history. Of course, all that unraveled when she lost her last fight to Roxanne Modafferi, but it is still surprising to see the young 22-year-old as an underdog here. By giving this fight the co-main event slot, the UFC is revealing that they clearly want eyes on it, and it’s hard to believe those eyes are intended for the 4-3 Grasso.
Despite tearing her ACL in her most recent fight, Barber still went the distance with a very capable fighter in Modafferi. Prior to that, Barber showed outlandish power for a flyweight, picking up a TKO victory in all four of her wins in the UFC and Dana White’s Contender Series.
Outside of a title fight, we likely won’t see Barber as an underdog many times in the UFC, so take advantage of that +108 price tag while it’s available.
Belal Muhammad (-450) vs. Dhiego Lima (+350)
Dhiego Lima (+350)
It’s important to start this off by noting that Belal Muhammad is the rightful favorite in this fight. But seven of his past eight fights have gone to a decision, and he will have a three-inch reach disadvantage in this one. A decision in this one will likely go his way if the fight stays standing, as he lands an average of 1.64 more significant strikes per minute than Dhiego Lima, but Lima is the more active fighter on the ground, averaging 0.6 more submission attempts per 15 minutes. Muhammad has also fought (and defeated) much tougher competition.
With that being said, -450 far too long of odds for this fight that is priced at -182 to go the distance. And if you continue to bet Muhammad lines like that, it’s unlikely to be a profitable outcome. So take the long odds on this one in hopes that Lima can use his range and ground game to take a decision victory or possibly even a submission over the favored Muhammad.