Betting Guide for UFC on ABC 1
The UFC is back after their year-end break. And what better way to kick 2021 off than with a three-card trip to Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, with fans in attendance. This first event of the year comes with a big headliner, as Max Holloway competes in his first non-title fight in nearly five years, against red-hot prospect Calvin Kattar.
The rest of the card is not exactly star-studded, but that doesn’t leave any shortage of betting options, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more
Let’s take a look at the best bets to make.
Max Holloway (-178) vs. Calvin Kattar (+150)
Fight To Go The Distance (-156)
Every Holloway fight is almost guaranteed to be action packed, considering he has already landed at least 400 more significant strikes than any other UFC fighter in history. He averages a whopping 6.47 significant strikes landed per minute, and his opponent in this one is not far behind, with Kattar averaging 5.01 himself. Both fighters also absorb at least 4.50 significant strikes per minute. The efficiency edge tilts slightly in favor of Holloway, as he lands at a 3% higher rate and defends at a rate 5% higher.
As the numbers tell, this is an extremely close fight, and it is priced at -156 to go the distance. An important stat to note is that Holloway’s UFC debut back in February of 2012 is the only inside the distance by either of these fighters. All seven of their other combined losses have been by decision.
Carlos Condit (-178) vs. Matt Brown (+150)
Fight Does Not Go The Distance (-112)
On the other side of the spectrum, the co-main event brings us a fight between two fighters who are a combined 76 years old. 36-year old Carlos Condit picked up a win in October, ending his five-fight losing streak, which consisted of three submission losses and two by decision. Across the octagon, 40-year old Matt Brown has gone 2-4 over his past six fights, with all six ending inside the distance. Five of them ended in a KO/TKO, while the other was a submission loss to Demian Maia.
It’s tough to decide which one of these aged veterans will come away with the win here, but it is clear that both are past their prime and are no longer built to take the damage brought by a UFC fight. Expect this one to end early, and the -112 odds provide solid value there.
Wu Yanan (-116) vs. Joselyne Edwards (-102)
Wu Yanan by points (+140)
Moving further down the card, we have a low-level matchup between Wu Yanan, who carries a 1-2 UFC record, against the promotional newcomer, Joselyne Edwards. Yanan suffered a decision loss in her UFC loss at the young age of 21 years old. Since then, she has picked up a first round submission and dropped another decision, and is still just 24 years old. She is very active on the feet, averaging 4.79 significant strikes landed per minute, while landing just 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Her opponent, Edwards has only fought one opponent with any UFC experience, and suffered a decision loss.
This fight is priced at -210 to go the distance, meaning a finish is unlikely. We don’t have any official numbers on Edwards, since this is her UFC debut. But we do know that Yanan’s high striking output can land her points if this fight goes to the judges. With plus-odds on our side, the bet to make here is Yanan winning a decision.