Three NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday, June 11
We have two more playoff games scheduled for Friday. The action gets underway with Game 3 between the Hawks and 76ers at 7:30 p.m. ET and wraps up with the Suns vs. the Nuggets at 10 p.m. ET. Both of these games are expected to be competitive, but there is value to be had in the player prop market.
Player props can be useful in multiple ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) or to measure a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Ben Simmons Over 13.5 points (-102)
Simmons was extremely quiet in his last game. He finished with just four points on three shot attempts, and he posted a usage rate of just 7.9%. That is a major outlier on his game log, so expect him to be a bit more aggressive in Game 3. He posted a usage rate of 19.2% over his previous six playoff contests, and he averaged 15.2 points in those games. Simmons should also see a few additional minutes if today’s game is more competitive after playing just 34.5 minutes in a blowout victory. Overall, he’s an excellent buy-low target.
Trae Young Over 3.5 rebounds (+112)
Rebounding is not the first thing that you think about with Young. Or the second. Or the third. Still, this line is presenting solid value at +112. He’s actually a solid rebounder considering he’s almost always the smallest player on the court. Young averaged 3.9 rebounds per game this season, and he did that in an average of just 33.7 minutes per game. He’s playing 37.0 minutes per game in the postseason, yet his rebounding numbers have actually decreased. Nevertheless, I think he’s a strong positive regression candidate on the glass in Game 3, so I’m willing to roll the dice at better than even money.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 6.5 rebounds (-100)
Let’s stick with the rebounding props. Porter has not had a good start to this series vs. the Suns, but no one on the Nuggets has. He’s played just 31 and 27.6 minutes in his first two contests, both of which were blowout losses. He still managed to average 6.5 rebounds per game in those matchups, which bodes well for his rebounding prospects today. His playing time should increase in a more competitive game, and Game 3 is the Nuggets’ best chance to make this a competitive series. They’re currently listed as 1.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook, so I expect Porter to play closer to 35 minutes in this contest. As long as that happens, he should be able to grab seven boards.