UFC Fight Night 215: Lewis vs. Spivak Preview & Best Bets
A UFC heavyweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 215 as No. 7 Derrick Lewis faces No. 12 Sergey Spivak.
- Date: Saturday, November 19, 2022 | Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+
Food Fight? The Vanilla Gorilla Faces Salsa Boy
Another heavyweight fight is scheduled to go down before the main event. You may remember Chase Sherman‘s name from a previous preview. He was supposed to fight Josh Parisian on November 5 before the latter pulled out of the fight due to medical issues. Sherman’s reward is drawing a bout against undefeated Waldo Cortes-Acosta (8-0-0).
Whereas Sherman was a favorite against Parisian, he’ll be a +168 underdog in this contest. Cortes-Acosta has four knockouts and one submission through eight career fights. He averages 0.8 knockdowns per 15 minutes, to Sherman’s 0.35.
Sherman garners 94 percent of his wins by KO or TKO but has lost four of his past five fights. Both fighters land a high volume of significant strikes at 6.51 and 6.21 per minute, but Cortes-Acosta absorbs far fewer at 3.8 to Sherman’s 6.51. Take Cortes-Acosta to win at -220.
The Hulk Meets The African Savage
Another bout of big boys features light heavyweights Ion Cutelaba and Kennedy Nzechukwu. Cutelaba has lost two in a row, both by first-round submission. Luckily for the Moldovan, Nzechukwu shouldn’t be a submission threat but has won four of six, three by knockout.
Nzechukwu will have an enormous four-inches of height and an eight-inch reach advantage. Both land a similar amount of significant strikes, but Cutelaba absorbs 1.1 fewer per minute.
The Hulk averages 4.68 takedowns per 15 minutes but will have to get through Nzechukwu’s 81 percent takedown defense rate. Despite the size difference, the fight is close on paper. Cutelaba has value due to his takedown volume, and at +850 for a decision, it could pay off big.
UCF Heavyweight Main Event
- Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak
- Odds to Win: Lewis +168 | Spivak -220
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -195 | Submission +300 | Decision +460
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +470 | No -750
Another Moldovan finds their way onto the card as Sergey Spivak takes on Derrick Lewis. Lewis is one of the heaviest hitters in the history of the UFC. Although Lewis is 37 years old, power is the last thing to go. Spivak has won five of his past six fights, while Lewis has lost three of four.
However, Lewis has been fighting higher-caliber fighters. They have a few like opponents. Lewis lost by knockout to Tai Tuivasa, and Spivak submitted him. Still, Spivak lost to Marcin Tybura, who Lewis knocked out. Meanwhile, they both beat Alexey Oleynik, Spivak by decision, and Lewis by knockout.
Having common opponents doesn’t always tell us how fighters will measure up to each other, but it’s not insignificant. On the feet, Lewis will have a big power advantage, with the ability to end the fight at any moment. Spivak will have a submission edge, but the key will be taking Lewis to the ground.
The Polar Bear averages 4.09 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Lewis only has a 55 percent takedown defense. The Black Beast can usually get to his feet rather quickly after being taken down, but Father Time finds everyone.
This fight could be the beginning of the end for Lewis, but at +240, it’s worth riding with him in this contest.
UFC Fight Night 215: Lewis vs. Spivak Betting Card
- Cortes-Acosta to win (-220)
- Cutelaba by decision (+850)
- Lewis by KO/TKO (+240)