UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos Preview & Best Bets
A top-ten women’s strawweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 214 as No. 3 Marina Rodriguez faces No. 7 Amanda Lemos.
- Date: Saturday, November 5, 2022 | Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+
Two Scoops Of The Vanilla Gorilla
Chase Sherman enters as a -136 favorite despite losing four of his past five fights. Meanwhile, Josh Parisian has alternated two wins and two losses through four UFC fights. Both fighters measure six-foot-four, but Parisian will have a one-inch reach and a weight advantage.
Sherman depends on technical knockouts, overwhelming his opponents with volume and garnering 94 percent of his wins by KO or TKO. Parisian has a little more in the power department, picking up 71 percent of his wins by KO/TKO.
Sherman averages 1.54 more significant strikes per minute than Parisian but absorbs 1.4 more. Takedowns shouldn’t play an important role, but Parisian will have a slight edge, averaging just over a takedown per 15 minutes to Sherman’s zero.
This heavyweight bout is as good as a coin flip, but Parisian has slightly more value at +106.
D-Rod Meets The Haitian Sensation
Neil Magny is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC, but he fell victim to the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov in his previous bout. Before that loss, he strung together five wins over six fights, with wins agianst Max Griffin, Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Anthony Rocco Martin, and Li Jingliang.
Magny is a durable fighter, having been finished seven times (five submissions, two knockouts) in 35 fights. Across from Magny is another tough fighter. Daniel Rodriguez has only two losses in 19 career bouts and has strung together a four-fight win streak.
Rodriguez is a finisher, ending opponents in 12 (eight knockouts, four submissions) of his 17 wins. Magny will have a two-inch height and a significant six-inch reach advantage. Rodriguez has power that Magny lacks, averaging 0.48 more knockdowns per 15 minutes.
He also throws much more volume, with 4.16 more significant strikes per minute. Magny has better takedowns, but Rodriguez has decent takedown defense.
Rodriguez should be a live dog at +100.
Women’s Strawweight Main Event
- Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos
- Odds to Win: Rodriguez -235 | Lemos +180
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +110 | Submission +600 | Decision +100
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +106 | No -134
Marina Rodriguez comes in on a four-fight win streak, having lost just one bout in her career (split decision to Carla Esparza). Meanwhile, Amanda Lemos has won six of her past seven fights but was submitted two contests ago by Jessica Andrade.
Lemos is a strong striker, landing 4.87 significant strikes per minute and knocking down her opponents 1.34 times per 15 minutes. However, Rodriguez lands 5.03 significant strikes per minute and has a knockdown rate of 0.2 per 15 minutes.
They have an identical reach (65″), but Rodriguez will be two inches taller. Lemos will have a grappling advantage, averaging 0.87 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and has an 81 percent takedown defense rate to Rodriguez’s 65. Still, Rodriguez is better in the area where Lemos is strongest.
Take Rodriguez to win outright at -235.
UFC Fight Night 214 Betting Card
- Parisian outright (+106)
- D. Rodriguez outright (+100)
- M. Rodriguez outright (-235)