UFC Vegas 62: Grasso vs. Araujo Preview & Best Bets
A top ten women’s flyweight bout headlines UFC Vegas 62, as No. 5 Alexa Grasso takes on No. 6. Viviane Araujo.
- Date: Saturday, October 15, 2022
- Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | Broadcast: ESPN2
Misha Cirkunov returns to light heavyweight from middleweight to face a fighter with heavyweight experience, Alonzo Menifield. Cirkunov is a judoka with some power and submission ability.
However, Cirkunov is somewhat of a glass cannon, able to dish it out but not great at absorbing punishment. Menifield comes in with heavyweight power, having won nine of his 15 fights by knockout. He enters with three wins over his past four fights, while Cirkunov is on a three-fight losing streak.
Menifield by KO/TKO pays plus money at +105.
Forty-fight veteran Cub Swanson moves down to bantamweight to face Jonathan Martinez. Swanson enters winning three of his past four, while Martinez is on a three-fight win streak. The veteran is under a month removed from his 39th birthday and more than ten years older than Martinez. Both fighters are five-foot-eight and have a 70-inch reach.
There are a lot of statistical similarities between the two, having almost identical win percentages in knockouts, submissions, and decisions. Swanson averages 0.4 knockdowns per 15 minutes, to Martinez’s 0.54. Martinez averages only 0.06 more significant strikes per minute.
They absorb a similar amount of strikes and have essentially parallel connection percentages at 50 and 48 and the same defense rate of 60 percent. The unpredictable metric is Swanson’s move down in weight because he still looked good at featherweight.
Martinez might have a speed advantage, but Swanson is a live dog at +168.
Women’s Flyweight Main Event
- Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo Odds
- Odds to Win: Grasso -220 | Araujo +168
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +260 | Submission +650 | Decision -220
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes -210 | No +150
Alexa Grasso comes into this fight with a one-inch height advantage but gives up two inches of reach to Viviane Araujo. Grasso has won three in a row and could vault herself into the title picture, while Araujo has won five of her seven UFC fights and three of the past four.
Both fighters throw a lot of volume, nearly five significant strikes per minute – Grasso 4.92 and Araujo 4.76. However, Araujo absorbs 1.34 more significant strikes per minute. The Brazilian will have an advantage with her takedown defense, with Araujo defending 90 percent of attempts.
Grasso has a great gas tank, so she should be able to keep a solid pace, especially on her feet. Grasso will likely have the advantage in the striking, but Araujo will have the grappling edge averaging 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Araujo is the more well-rounded fighter, so she has a legit chance to pull off an upset. Take Araujo at +168 in what should be a close bout.
UFC Vegas 62: Grasso vs. Araujo Picks
- Menifield by KO/TKO (+105)
- Swanson to win (+168)
- Araujo to win (+168)